By Gwado J. Ador
In a toxic political environment such as ours in South Sudan, anything is possible. The probability that some people could be playing into the hands of others is high.
Such instances of political showdown have been taking place in our watch all throughout history and during the independence of South Sudan.
We have seen factions breaking away from their main parties crossing the floor to join rival parties. Generally speaking, there was an interchangeable pattern of political swaps and on end.
In the process of all these revelations, innocent civilians were caught up in between the rival forces unprepared and as a result, many lives were lost in appalling conditions.
All these unravelling events were purely dictated by personal greed and lust for power upon which the principle of ‘no permanent enemy in politics was maintained by the players even among the gullible and the stupidest in the game.
However, the news that Taban Deng Gai has been ousted by Gen. Gathoth Gatkuoth from the leadership of SPLM-IO in the TGoNU came as no surprise for there was no smoke without fire.
Up to now, President Salva Kiir Mayardit hasn’t been disturbed or alarmed by this news which could have been viewed by him as a conspiracy against his establishment.
Gathoth’s action was against the very government Kiir presides over and most importantly he was also against the Revitalized Peace Agreement which Kiir supports wholeheartedly as he claims.
The scenario of the current political bickering within the Taban’s camp is not an exemption. But the difference is that this revelation has taken place while his faction was considered as an important component of the transitional government of which Kiir is its leader.
It’s beyond any reasonable doubt that this conspiracy might have been adopted somewhere, prepared and given out to Taban’s competitor within the Nuer community.
Of course, Kiir relishes such games, anything that can help him dump Taban and place him under control within the desired realm is welcome.
For sure, Taban Gai would be portrayed by his colleagues as a victim in the current political game because of the following factors.
Since 2016 after his assumption of power as the only substitute of Dr Riek Machar who fled Juba following J1 incident was applauded by his arch rivals in Juba as a success story.
But unfortunately, Taban couldn’t fulfil his obligation to rally behind him all the Nuer fighters and bring them to fend off the system against perceived enemies in the area.
Secondly, the temporary confinement of Dr Machar in South Africa of which Taban was proud of as his biggest achievement was a total fiasco.
This ineffective confinement was viewed by Kiir and his cohort as insufficient for Taban to get more political concessions as he wishes to carry on as Kiir’s most trusted ally.
Finally, Taban has failed to bring harmony among quarrelling political and military rival forces in the oil-rich region at home town Bentiu.
Thus, the reports of fighting and appalling human rights violations which kept coming from the area were all sources of embarrassment to Kiir’s leadership.
Hence, you can’t rule out Kiir’s complacency in Gathoth’s recent political debut, because he declined to condemn the spirit of Gathoth’s dissent which should have been viewed by him as an act of sabotage against The TGoNU. To him, of course, this was a godsend, it has to take a course!
If this is true, then the next obvious assumption is that Kiir would be working on how to drop Taban Deng Gai from his grace because he has failed to read his lips.
However, Taban might have failed to admit that he is no longer in Kiir’s favourite list probably because, he couldn’t understand what is required of him to do.
Perhaps, he was carried away by the comfort and lifestyle in Juba as privileges kept coming on to him and his lieutenants while others were languishing in abject poverty.
This has continued until he was reminded in a harsh way that his services were no longer desirable.
The expression was clearly made known by Kiir during his last SPLM convention at Lobonok of which Taban was told quite blunt to go and put his house in order before asking to join the SPLM mainstream.
It’s beyond any reasonable doubt that Kiir is under political pressure this time and won’t entertain any political bankruptcy or empty rhetoric’s such as ‘Ezekiel Lul’s repeated arguments in the international press that ‘South Sudan economy is booming’.
Kiir had enough of this kind of rhetoric’s and would want from his allies to mobilise Nuer forces and send them to the battlefield so as to stave off enemies who are threatening his leadership in Juba.
It was obvious that Kiir and his cohorts weren’t amused to proceed with people like Taban and Ezekiel Lul who don’t have forces of their own to deliver. According to sources close to the system which added saying both have proven useless.
On the other hand, Gen. Gathoth Gatkuoth in the eyes of Kiir and his supporters has displayed the required military credentials that would allow him to seal a deal with President Kiir.
Gathoth relies on his recent laurels as the commander of the formidable Nuer White army forces which mowed down ‘Shilluk community’ in Malakal town on the Christmas Eve 2013.
He was quite confident that Kiir’s would favour him as the best candidate among the Nuers whom Kiir will ask to mobilise forces to fight against his enemies in Equatoria and Bhar el Gazal.
Gathoth was certain that Kiir would appreciate his job well done in Malakal which enhanced Padang to capture Malakal town without any resistance to mention.
As a result, he was made a Minister of Labour later in appreciation of that big achievement as his reward for job well done in Malakal.
For Taban, there was nothing to convince Kiir about him that he has formidable forces of his own that would be deployed to fend off Kiir’s leadership in Juba.
Of course, Taban won’t compete with Gathuoth who showed absolute loyalty and readiness to deploy his followers against Kiir’s enemies including Dr Riek Machar.
Gathoth might have signalled to Kiir that he stands ready to repeat Malakal scenario somewhere if given the opportunity to replace Taban as a peace partner and Chairman of SPLM-IO in the TGoNU.
Conversely, he might have shown also some degree of willingness to silence Dr Riek Machar or at least deter him from coming to assume his power in Juba.
To Kiir, Gen. Gathoth displays qualities of a loyal commander that would mobilise the Nuer White Army to stop the advancement of the opposition forces under the command of Gen. Thomas Cerilo who is threatening his government and community members today in Equatoria.
This is how Gen. Gathoth Gatkuoth managed to steal Taban’s thunder in the eyes of Kiir and cohorts in Juba.
Of course, this would be regarded as a failed coup by many observers, but this is a process that would take some time to take shape so that we could see Gathoth taking the position of Taban in the government as he was promised.
For now, however, Taban would play down Gathoth’s challenging debut to replace him as the chairman of SPLM-IO in the TGoNU as wild.
Of course, on his side, Gathoth would consider himself as the real leader that has already secured the confidence of President Kiir to support him in his debut.
Finally, it’s just a matter of time that Taban would get himself eventually ousted from the power to go roaming on the streets of Juba like any normal citizen or behaves like one of the commanders of a newly formed rebel movement in the butches of South Sudan. Anything is possible!
The question that poses itself for how long would these leaders who exclusively hail from Nuer community be used against one another to do dirty jobs on behalf of others. Don’t they get it?!
MP
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